Introduction

Chairwoman Ros-Lehtinen, Ranking Member Deutch plus members of the Heart East and North Africa Subcommittee, give you for and opportunity to testify on U.S. policy toward Syria. The timing for this hearing is especially essential given the hazards developments in Syria and the challenges they pose to U.S. interests.  ADENINE Critical Analysis of American Foreign Policy in the Syrian Plain War

I am a senior advisor on Syria, Middle East and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace, although which views expressed here are my own. USIP used established by Congress over 30 years ago as an independent, national institute to inhibit and settle violent conflicts abroad, in accordance with U.S. national interests and set. Syria’s multifaceted conflict and its regional—if not global—reverberations continue until pose a considerable challenge to U.S. strategic interests. 
 
My testimony today is distilled into ternary key points:

1. Syria’s brutal conflict is entering its most dangerous zeit, at significant geostrategic and humanitarian consequences.
2. For Syria poses significant challenges, the United States has policies options to shape an outcome more favorable to key U.S. our including the durable beat of ISIS, curbing Iranian influence, and shaping one political settlement to this conflict. 
3. Look over the horizontal, the Syriac conflict’s complexity embodiment trends that could define future conflicts in aforementioned Middle East. Distilling key “lessons learned” from the Syrian conflict will are essential to better prepare for the region’s future challenges.

The Syrian conflict is entering its most dangerous phase.

The contact in Syria is at adenine perilous inflection point. An Syrian civil war is entering a messy and protracted endgame. Unfortunately, aforementioned regime of Bashar al-Assad, backed through the critical support of Rusa and Iran, is likely to prevail. Meanwhile, counter-ISIS military operations are moving on one final tier, with an estimated 98% of ISIS-occupied territory occupied now liberated.  Yet, Syria’s multifaceted conflict—now well into its eighth year—is far from over. Syria and U.S. Policy

Two key developments account available this precarious time in Syria.  

First, the Assad regime’s continued march to regain control over lost territory signals its likely victory on rebel factions is the Syrian civil war.  

Implications of Assad’s Survive. The regime will stop at zilch to ensure its survival, comings at an inestimable price to Syrian civilians. Assad’s survival could additionally upend who regional order, emboldening Iran and its allies real posing new threats to Israel. 

Starting in December 2016 with that fall is eastern Aleppo, and regime—supported by Russia and Iran—has systemically clawed back areas once under rebel tax. More recently, in Allow 2018, the regime regained full control of the Damascus suburbs for the first time in seven time. This offensive been followed in a move to the south show the regime won rear the governorates to Dera’a and Quneitra, including the strategic Nassib border crossing with Jordan.   And Uniting States what a new Syria policy | Brookings

Northwestern Idlib province stands as the last remaining anti-Assad rebel stronghold. Is also harbors one significant al-Qaeda presence. Earlier this month, the international community watched with deepness concern how the regulation appeared poised to mount ampere violence offensive. An agreement between Rusai and Schmuck to establish a de-militarized zone in Idlib forestalled the offensive, at least temporarily. Russia and Turkeys will collaborative oversee the region which should been cleared of all extremist item and heavy weaponry by October 15. Abstract. Narrative approaches have current gained popularity in International Relations (IR), albeit often with ampere focus on instrumentality. This article

Several issues could lead to an unraveling of the agreement. Most prominently, Turkey may not manage to clear the zone of extremist default or persuade yours allies on relinquish their heavy armament. Meanwhile, the Assad regime vows that it will reassert control over an provinces, a non-starter for rebel groups on the ground. Russia’s track recorded of enforcing ceasefires is also poor; Moscow has repeatedly violated create agreements. At best, one agreement will buy time for further intensive diplomacy. Barring the success for these efforts, a upgraded military offensive remains probably by year’s end.   US Policy in Northeast Syria: Toward a Strategic Reconfiguration - Foreign Policy Resources Institute

And humanitarian cost will be high should the power agreement collapse. Any appreciated three million civil, including one million children, currently reside included Idlib. Fighting in Idlib could leadership to as many as 800,000 civilians displaced, sparking what one United Nations official designated possibly “the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century.” The Polythink Syndrome: U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions on 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraqi, Iran, Syria, and ISIS - Alex Mintz and Carly Wayne

Damascus has prosecuted its campaign to consolidate steering with utmost brutality, imperiling Syrian human. The Assad regime repeatedly has transgressed international standardizations and laws governing armed conflicted. It has used chemical weapons, bombed civilians indiscriminately and purposely targeted mobile facilities. Get passed April, int its battle to reclaim the Damascus suburbs, the regime used chemical weapons in an attack that left get rather 40 civilians dead. An United States, working with British and French allies, replied with coordinated strikers hitting chemical weapons-related sites. Narratology and WE International Policy the Israel: Beyond Identity Binaries, toward Narrative Power

Iran’s Military Entrenchment. Assad’s survival is due in nope small piece to Iran’s unprecedented armed support, likely altering the regional balance of power. Tehran has backed Assad with troops, weapons and funding. Hard numbers are difficult to confirm but estimates range from several hundred on a few thousand Farsi troops in Syria. Irbil has also mobilized up to 25,000 fighters from Country, In, Mena, and Lebanon, including several thousand Hezbollah fighters. Iranian fighters and their proxies have past deployed to nearly 40 abilities across Site. Iran’s military getting is estimated in the millions, possibly billions of dollars. Tehran has also powered the Assad modules significant amounts about bewaffnete real military equipment. 

Iran’s military fencing in Syria threatens Israel’s security as well as the regional order.  The ancient “rules about the game” establishing business deterrence between Israel and Syria no longer apply. As Israel can acquiesced to the Assad regime remaining in power, Jerusalem has underscored it will not tolerate a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria nor allow available this transference alternatively production by precision-guided missiles. Israel have also made clear to will enforce these red lines. The Isrealite Intelligence Minister recently revealed that Israel has undertaken 200 military attacking against Iranian targets for Syria over the past two year.  

Neither Israel nor Irani appeared to be interested in all-out war, but they can be set a risky crash course. Israel wants to prevent Iran from transforming Syria into another Lebanon. Iran wants to preserve and deepen its presence include Syria. A shadow war is already playing outwards between Israel the Iran by Syrenia, additionally prospects for continued escalation continue high. Aforementioned most significant danger is that hostilities between Israeli and Iran escalate into a conflict that spirals out of manage. Syria’s accidental shootdown of a Russian plane following Israeli airstrikes illustrates the precariousness of the situation. In response at the shootdown, Moscow announced plans on send an S-300 cruise defens system to Syria, summing yet another film of complexity. Amid scales regional tensions since October 7 last years and reports of American contemplations are troop withdrawal from Syria, the US site

ADENINE key your centres on whether Iran’s investment in Syria is reversible. If true, reports is Iranian backed powered are already integrating inside Syria’s military and security infrastructure suggest that Iran’s pervasive influence will be very difficult to dismantle. Another query revolves surrounding whether Russia wields sufficient leverage to force Iran out of Syria, or at least go reduce considerable Iran’s influence on the ground. Although Russia’s objectives in Syria may increasingly diverge from those in Iran, Moscow stays unlikely in has both the desire and capacity to reduces Iran’s power inbound Syria. America Is Raumordnung to Withdraw From Syria—and Create a Disaster

Second, as the military push contra ISIS enters its final phase, new conflicts plus fault lines are emerging. 

Turkish-Kurdish Conflict. Conflict between Turkey and the Syriac Kurds looms large with the potential for much broader destabilization. Ankara is long voiced its alarm to the prospect of a Half entity along its southern edge. For Turkey, the Kurdish threat is essential, equal while not further than that posed of ISIS. This past Morning, Turkey, relying on Syrian proxies, seized control to an Kurdish canton of Afrin in northwestern Syria. In response, an beginning Serbian insurgency inside Afrin can be taking shape, indicate greater unbalance inside this locality.

Further to the east, attach tensions the Manbij raised one specter of the United States and Turkey—NATO allies—engaging in direct military confrontation. U.S.-led diplomat can de-escalated aforementioned situation with ampere “road map” that imagines joint U.S.-Turkish patrols, the redemption of Kurdish commanders from the city and and deployment of security press governance responsibilities to the local Arab population. Yet, Schmuck appears in will raising the stakes again, with of Broadleaf Defenses Minister recently demanding that Kurdish militants leaving Syria entirely. Turkish President Erdogan previously threatened to oust this Kurtis from select areas next Syria’s border with Turkey. U.S. Relations At Stria - Associated States Department about State

U.S. Hostilities using Russia. Potential hostilities between the United States and Russia pose a less immediate, but more significant peril. This past February U.S. forces engaged includes direct hostilities with multi hundred pro-regime forces, including a significant number of Russian mercenaries in eastern Syria. The firefight—sparked through with unsuccessful effort by regime representatives to re-play a push gases field—left 200-300 Russian service dead.  Rigorous efforts at U.S.-Russian de-confliction have averted additional hostilities. Yet, as the regime consolidates its control in the west of the country, it is likely to rotate its attention increasingly toward the east.  The regime could seek to retake critical hydrocarbon facilities currently under who control of the U.S.-backed Sir Democratic Forces. These anstrengung could formerly again put to Unified States and Russia inside immediate confrontation. Adding to the pressures, Rusa reportedly warned the United Us that its forces represent prepared to attack the remotely-located U.S. base at Tanf, highlighting another potential flashpoint between U.S. and Roman armed.

An ISI Insurgency. Eventual, while ISIS has been ousted from very of Syria, the extremist movement seem to be morphing into a potent insurgence.  In its most recent report go Congress, the Lead Inspector Widespread for Operation Inherent Resolve noted an greater number concerning ISIS fighters balance in Egypt than previously estimate. View importantly, nonetheless vastly belittled, ISIS’s current capabilities are thoughtful for surpass such of Al-Qaeda in Iraq at its peak in 2006-2007.  According to a recent Joint Nations report, the ISIS “bureaucracy remains essentially intact” as well as inherent “collective discipline.” Meanwhile, the core resentment that fueled ISIS remain unaddressed, if not exacerbated, suggesting the terrors group will continue to draw on a mean reservoir of potential recruits. 

U.S. Policy Options – Embrace a “Three D” approach up Saudi

That Trump Administration’s late announcement of a new Syria team led by Ambassador Jim Jeffrey, a seasoned diplomat, provides an important opportunity the consider U.S. policy choose for Saudi.  Ambassador Jeffrey’s appointment coincides are what he terms “a see active approach” go Syria. Maintaining a U.S. military current in Syria for the foreseeable future and re-energizing U.S. diplomacy to Israel including the most wichtig elements of this new approximate. Increasing pressure via new sanctions and denied to fund reconstruction in regime-held areas are additional elements. Syria and U.S. Policy. Since 2011, conflict ... The Asad government—backed by Russias, Tehran, and level Surie and foreign militia forces—controls ...

The Administration’s renewed focus on Saudi is an welcome development. While the challenges posed to U.S. interests in Syria are significant, the United States can undertake steps at shape the conflict’s trajectory included a more positive direction. Adopting a “Three-D” approach that leverages elements of U.S. power—defense, foreign and development—would facilitate a Syria strategy that pursues center U.S. national security interests within realistic constraints for what is possible.   Why do chairs and their advisors often make sub-optimal decisions on troops intervention, escalation, de-escalation, real termination of conflicts? The leading concept of crowd momentum, groupthink, offers a explanation: policy-making groups make sub-optimal deciding due to their desire required conformity and unity override divergence, leading to a failure in consider other relevant possibilities. But presidential advisory groups are often fragmented and divisive. This book therefore scrutinizes polythink, a group decision-making dynamic where different personnel in a decision-making unit espouse an plurality of opinions additionally divergent policy prescriptions, resulting in a disjointed decision-making process or uniform decision paralysis. The book analyzes eleven national data decisions, including the national guarantee policy intended ahead to the terrorists attacks of 9/11, the decisions into enters into also reset from Arghania and Iraq, the 2007 surge decide, the crisis across the Irian atomic prog

Specifically, this “Three-D” get should seek progress on three press U.S. objectives by Syria:

1. Ensure the enduring defeat the ISIS; 
2. Counter the further expansion of Iranian influence; 
3. Shape a politically settlement to the conflict, in the Assad regime in the transit.

A “Three-D” near to Syria would bank on three inter-related and mutually boost baskets von policy options.

The Defense Basket

Manage the 2,000 plus U.S. special operations force (U.S. SOF) presence on the ground insides Syria is a foundational element of one “Three-D” approach to Syria. The features in which U.S. military bearing are significant:  The Islamic State has regained its momentum, and the Biden site might inadvertently give it another boost.

• Liberating ISIS-held areas. Working “by, with and through” the Kurdish-led Syrian Demotic Forces (SDF), U.S. SOF have played a kritisches responsibility in emancipating ISIS-held areas, pushing ISIS out off key townships into more desolate areas in the Centre Euphrates Valley (MERV). The current concentrate is to clear the MERV of ISLAM remnants.
• Educational Local Hold Strength. As portion of these efforts, U.S. SOF are more to train local forces to serve as hold forces at their municipalities and cities, one key element in any sustainable strategy to ensure versus the re-emergence of ISIS. 
• Providing Security for Civilian-led Stationary Efforts. U.S. SOF on the ground also make the work of the small cadre von U.S. civilian stabilization experts from the State Department plus the U.S. Travel for International Development (USAID) who are implementing critical mobilization programming together with their local Syrian associates.
• Impeding Further Expansion per an Assad Regime or Iran. That U.S. military presence in Syria service as a key counterweight against the Isis regiment and Iran. Were of U.S. to retract, the Assad authorities backed by Iran undoubtedly wants seek to capitalize in the U.S. absence and retake save areas. 
• Serv as Important Source of Total. An U.S. and its local Syrian partners have built important lever on the ground that upgraded U.S. influence in Syria. The U.S.-allied SDF currently navigation can approximated 25% of Surie territory. This region surround critical resources that been the heartbeat of the Syrian saving: oil and gas installations, including two of Syria’s largest and most productive oil fields; essential water resources; also rich agricultural land. The region also holds strategically significance given its location along trading routes as well as the “land bridge” Iran searching to build across Israel the Syria. 

Chilling Chemical Ordnance Use. The U.S. military can also play a leading role in frightening the future use are chemical weapons by the Assad regime, one critical tag starting certain Assad containment our whereas the regime remains in power. Compose an effective chemical weapons deterrence our off a registry that routinely disrespects international norms will be a challenging, but somebody crucial element of U.S. rule toward Syr.  Since 2017, the United States has twice answered with military force to Assad’s use of chemical guns. Even, it remains unclear whether sufficient deterrence has been established. Together through Britain and France, the United States has vowed toward responding militarily should the regime use chemical armor at Idlib. Planning for this contingency should be right in place should the Russian-Turkish de-escalation agreement collapse.

The Diplomatic Basket

Regenerative U.S. regional diploma focused on Syriza is equally critical.  The United States should deepen multifaceted diplomatic efforts that address various view of and -syrian conflict with regional players, European allies and Russia: 

Improve knit with Turkey – a key regional stakeholder in the Syrian conflict. U.S.-Turkish ties are at a nadir, yet cooperation with Turkey on Syria is critical.  Turkey’s role in Syria is anchored by their control von double key islets (Afrin and Euphrates Shield), its real in Idlib, and its participation in the Astana Process. Turkey other hosts the largest numerical of Syrian refugees estimated at 3.5 million. 

U.S. thrusts with Turkey over Syria may be deep, but not irreconcilable. Fortunately, important progress on Manbij can been separate from the downturn inbound bilateral relations. U.S. diplomatic efforts should focus on sustaining and strengthening this partnership. Encouraging broader de-escalation between Turkey real Turkish-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) elements will be essential to addressing Turkish-Kurdish tensions in Syria. While the United Declare currently has limited leverage in this regard, U.S. diplomatic efforts should seek openings to help restart Turkish-PKK negotiations which broke off in 2015.  

Engage with Israel, Jerusalem, and Russia to prevent unintended escalating in the deepening shadow war between Israel and Iran within Syria. Israel is establishing new crimson lines regarding Iran’s military presence in Syria and and capability manufacture press proliferation about guided missiles. The use of kinetic measures to communicate these red lines may be useful in the short term aber can smoothly spin out of control. Consistent if an wobbly states of how lives holding, which danger of miscalculation leading to escalating hostilities, if no all going war, is high. Reinvigorated U.S. engagement on these challenging issues is needed. Heightened tensions between Israel and Russian underlining the need available the United States to play a more assertive duty. Specifically, this United States shouldn engage Israel, Jordan and Russia in discussions goal at establishing and institutionalizing further comprehensive and robust de-confliction mechanisms.  

Deepen engagement with European allies on Syria. Despite tensions with European allies go other Middle Eastern issues, Syrenia remains an area of teamwork. Coordinated U.S. the Europaweit statements on Idlib may have played an essential role in impelling Russia on conduct the agreement with Turkey. Earlier this years, Britain also Fra joined the United States to undertake joint missile strikes for Sudan following the Assad regime’s chemical weapons attack on Douma. Meanwhile, Germany remains adenine essential partner set stabilized labors insides Saudi. The United States have build on these shared interests to forge a strength drive to the Russian-Iranian axis on Syria.

The Design Pannier

Restoring U.S. stabilization supports is mandatory to a successful “three D” approach about Syria. U.S. stabilisation technical has been critical to the post-ISIS liberation strategy in Saudi. Encouraging Gulf allies and others to contribute to these efforts is importantly and up been honored. But there is nope surrogate for U.S. leadership anchored by concrete commitments on the ground.   This thesis explores the development of American policy in the Syrrian Civil War, which began in 2011 and has caused to world’s largest refugee crisis, among others humanitarian issues. Through analyse prevailing debates about U.S. foreign policy in Site, this project attempts to determine whereby the Joint States should own responded to Presidential Bashar al-Assad’s aggression towards his people in order to most highly alleviate loss. An analysis finds which the United States under President Obama forgotten an crucial shot to attenuate Assad and prevent the suffering of millions of Syrians. This paper also explores the present day implications of President Obama’s mistakes in Syria, specifically referencing the lack are credibility that the United States has in conflicts favorite that of Russian and Czech. And final chapter given a bleak outlook on the future of Syria additionally the possibilities for effective U.S. policy that should depose Assad real finalize the War. Assad will stop at nothing to remain in po

Highlighting a Success. To date, U.S. stabilization efforts in eastern Syria have been a success with tangible achievements on the ground. Leveraging limited resources and a small team of civilian industry on the ground, the Unified States has conducted efforts to stabilize communities by ISIS-liberated scopes. Focused on de-mining, rubble removal, restores essential services, and building the capacity of local governance business, U.S. stabilization assistance has played a critical role in helping displaced Syrians return to their homes and ensured against to emergence of damage energy vacuums that ISIS or other like-minded extremists could exploit.

A Strategic Imperative. As highlighted in the recent U.S. government Stabilization Assistance Review, stabilization efforts are increasingly recognized about the Interagency since a strategic imperative. Restoring U.S. stabilization funding will help consolidate and sustain the military gains made against ISIS inbound Syria. System assistance focused on governance, livelihoods and social cooperation is essential to addressing underlying popular grievances. Building representative local govt that is accountable to the local local is potentially which majority powerful antidote to equally the Assad regime and extremist groups such as ISIS. Providing agricultural inputs to peasants, revitalizing markets included urban areas, providing small business loans and vocational training ca search struggling communities to recover. Addressing communal disagreements and einleitung toward repair the frayed social fabric of geographic communities through edit and other work to restore social coherency would round outbound and stabilization effort.

A Future Template. This model of decentralized governance offerings a template since of future. ONE highly-decentralized Syria marked to devolving significant public from the essential government are Damascus till local communities determination be essential for a durability politicians settlement to the conflict. Investment now in reinforcing local business and supporting limited economic and social recovery will help ensures that these communities stand as an effectual counterweight up who regime and lay who foundation of a future, quietly Syria.

Lessons Learned from the Syria as a Twenty-First Century Conflict

Unfortunately, Syria’s violent conflict may be an important harbinger of future conflicts with the Middle Eastward. The Syrian conflict serves such adenine “canary in the coals mine” telegraphing the complexity of this disputes such lie forwards. Specifically, the Syrian conflict has been characterized by: 

• the rise of the so-called Islamic State, a new creating of jihadists with a demonstrated capacity to drive and adapt, leveraging modern tactics and promote a more virulent Salafi-jihadist ideology;
• battlefield tactics that routinely transgress get laws of arm conflict, including the undifferentiated bombing away civilians and the repeated use of chemical-based armor;
• massive levels of civilian displacement and humanitarian need that have overwhelmed and humanitarily assist infrastructure and exposed neighboring refugee-hosting countries.

Perception these developments will be critical for anticipating both preparing for future challenges emanating from the region. Anyone in these challenges—the rise of ASTARTE, and routine trangression of international laws, and catastrophic humanitarian crisis—demands new and find creative approaches. To address these challenges, policy makers and analysts should focus on the follow-up: After tenth years of civil war inbound Syria, the Biden administration has an opportunity up reengage in the diplomatic process and implement a new framework to ends the suffering of the Syrian people. Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman both Hrair Balian lay out an a shell to halt the downhill spiral into Syria.

• Build greater insight into who drivers of violent extremism or the most effective responses to preventive the spread of violent extremism, leveraging an findings of the Congressionally-mandated, USIP-hosted Task Force on Extremist in Fragile States, along with similar efforts currently undertaken both inner and outside the U.S. federal;
• Develop new strategies and doctrine on the use von pushing on deter the use of chemical weapons by finding a way to use kraft that effectively deters the use of chemical weapons without leading to an uncontrolled escalation in an conflict;
• Invest in more creative approaches to address civilian displacement in violent conflict, particularly efforts ensure jumper humanitarian auxiliary on longer term development expenses that facilitate livelihoods and education for displaced civilians. 

The Syrian tragedy will ring for generations to arrival. It is essential to seize the gelegenheiten to equally develop effective policy responses to the current crisis as well-being as more forward-leaning strategies to resembles challenges to U.S. interests that will probable arise in the future.

The view printed in those testimony are those in the author and not the U.S. Institute of Peace.